Friday, October 29, 2004

Screw the undecideds; it's about turnout
I've never quite believed in the argument that undecideds will break hard for the challenger this year, even though I've repeated it a few times. It seems to me that, like Pat Caddell says (and I loathe Pat Caddell), there would be an equal or greater inclination on the part of those who just haven't yet been convinced by Kerry to go with the known quantity and stick with Bush. I'm thinking/hoping many of them will decide not to vote, or even a Republican protest vote for Nader as opposed to Bush.

What seems like a more reasonable hope is that first-time voters will turnout in big numbers (although they haven't been in early voting in Tennessee). My fear is that the recent shocking move in Michigan polls in Bush's favor, after kerry seemed to have a firm grasp on it, is the undecided vote deciding to break for Bush, a foreshadowing of how they will go everywhere else. If we're not going to get the late deciders, we have to hope for a miraculous turnout of "unlikely" voters, motivated by a desire to kick the bum out.

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