Gallup's Likely Voter test
You can take their test screen here. It's crazy. Take the test as if you are this year an enthusiastic, knowledgeable first-time voter, though you have been old enough before. Say you rate your own chances to vote a 10 out of 10. The screen still tells you that you are not likely to vote.
Meanwhile, polls show that first-time voters are heavily for Kerry, and early voting returns point to record turnout.