Tuesday, September 21, 2004

Zogby Poll Update
Zogby's battleground state poll update has been released. He uses a controversial, forward-looking Internet-based model that does not rely as heavily on home phone calls. The newest update shows Bush reclaiming Missouri and Nevada, gaining slightly in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and widening his lead in West Virginia. The good news is that Kerry holds on to a razor-thin lead in Florida, and a small lead in Iowa, looks solid in Minnesota and Michigan, and continues to make Arkansas close and closing back in on Tennessee. If all of these things happened on November 2, and there are no surprises in other states, Kerry wins.

ARG will release their next round of state polls soon, and they will no doubt be stronger for Bush, as most other polls lately have been (including scary Survey USA polls that show a dead heat in MD, a Bush lead in NH). Until then, this Zogby update provides mostly good news for Kerry. Can Bush hit a stronger point than this? As undecided voters split off from here on out I think the challenger has the advantage, so I think it can only get better, barring something bad happening, or a debate meltdown. Time to get tough, but no reason to panic.

Why not spend your anxiety time volunteering from here on out? There's plenty to do.

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