Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Kerry wins
ARG has released their polls of all 50 states. If the results came out the same on election day, Kerry wins with 270 electoral votes. Wisconsin and West Virginia are tied, but should Bush win both, it would still be 270-268 for Kerry.

How close is it?
In addition to the 2 tied states, 57 of the EVs are in 3 states where the poll shows only a 1-point lead (Florida and Penn. for Kerry, Colorado for Bush).

An additional 53 EVs are in 6 states where the poll shows only a 2-point lead (Oregon and Minn. for Kerry; Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, and NH for Bush).

So 68 are very tenuous for Kerry, 45 for Bush. I still believe that in the end those late deciders who are going to vote will come down for Kerry, unless he does something to blow it. If you don't already know you want to vote for Bush, you're either going to go for the other guy, or stay home.

It's good, but fragile, news. America Coming Together (ACT, the people benefiting from the Springsteen et al tour) is packing up their Michigan operation and moving to Florida.

One other interesting tidbit is it looks like Colorado may vote to split their electoral votes. That would go into effect this year, and virtually assures a 5-4 allotment one way or the other. It's close there, but would be gravy for Kerry. This is mostly bad news for Bush, taking away 4 votes from the 9 he would have gotten under the old system. There's no other state that's real close that Kerry could then afford to lose, but it's an interesting note. If it turns out that the change in CO (if it happens) impacts the outcome of the electoral vote (if it were the policy in 2000, Gore would have won the Presidency), it would be interesting indeed to see the fallout and challenges.

The funnest thing would be if all the Bushies vote it down and then Kerry wins the state and gets all 9 votes.

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