Saturday, September 11, 2004

Back to Electoral Basics or "Florida is a large state"
No sense denying that the new polls show Bush gaining and Kerry slipping. This is a good time to remember that the electoral college is what matters. I think what Bush has done is to essentially shore up the Republican base, and steal some votes from Kerry among those obsessed with terror threats that buy into the Kerry-is-weak lie.

As for the election that means only that dreams of a big Kerry victory are not presently in sight. Bush made gains in states he was supposed to win anyway, but where Kerry briefly challenged. So we won't look to win Arkansas anymore, or Tennessee I'm sad to say, or Missouri, or Ohio. But those were never necessary. It's really all about 2 things: first, Kerry has to make sure he doesn't let Minnesota and Wisconsin both slip. That should not be difficult. Then he has to win Florida. It's all about Florida, and I haven't seen a single poll showing Bush gaining a lead to speak of there. Assuming Kerry holds on to the NE, including PA, and holds on in MI where he should, he simply cannot lose the Presidency if he wins Florida. Bush can win Alabama and Oklahoma by as many votes as he wants. We don't have to gain Arizona, or Louisiana, Ohio or West Virginia, and don't even have to hold on to Iowa.

Hold on to Wisconsin and Minnesota (or keep one plus New Mexico), and win Florida, and Bush is out. If I was Kerry I wouldn't leave those four states for the next 50 days.

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