Polls and more Polls
National Polls:
Rasmussen Tracking (5/3): Kerry 46, Bush 43
NYT/CBS (3/30-4/1) Kerry 48, Bush 43 (4-28) Bush 43, Kerry 41, Nader 5
Fox News (4/21-22) Bush 42, Kerry 40, Nader 2
IDB/CSM Poll (4/14-19) Bush 44, Kerry 40, Nader 4
Gallup (3/25-28) (4/16-18) Bush 49 50, Kerry 47 44, Nader 5 4
ABC/WaPo (4/15-18) Bush 48, Kerry 43, Nader 6
Zogby (4/1-4) (4/15-17) Bush 46 45, Kerry 45 45, Nader 3 3
Pew (3/22-28): Kerry 47, Bush 46
Newsweek (3/18-19) (4/8-9) Bush 45 42, Kerry 43 46, Nader 5 4
ARG (3/9-11) (4/6-9) Kerry 48 48, Bush 42 43, Nader 2
AP (3/19-21) (4/5-7) Bush 46 45, Kerry 43 44, Nader 5 6

Various State Polls
Alabama (3/15-18): Bush 59, Kerry 27
Arizona: (3/19) Bush 51, Kerry 42 (4/23-26) Bush 41, Kerry 38, Nader 3
Arkansas: (4/14-15) Bush 47, Kerry 45 (5/2) Bush 45, Kerry 45
California: Kerry 53, Bush 40 (4/17-24) Kerry 51, Bush 40
Colorado: (3/31-4/1) Bush 49, Kerry 40, Nader 4 (4/14) Bush 49, Kerry 44
Connecticut: Kerry 49, Bush 36 (3/25-28) Kerry 52, Bush 33, Nader 4
Florida: (4/13) Kerry 47, Bush 46 (4/18-21) Bush 47, Kerry 46, Nader 3
Idaho (3/10-12): Bush 57, Kerry 23, Nader 4
Illinois: Kerry 54, Bush 36 UPDATE (3/8-10): Kerry 47, Bush 39, Nader 2
Indiana: Bush 51, Kerry 45
Iowa: (3/23) Kerry 51, Bush 41 (4/18-21) Kerry 47, Bush 46, Nader 3
Kansas: Bush 57, Kerry 39
Kentucky: Bush 57, Kerry 41
Maryland: Kerry 47, Bush 38 Kerry 48, Bush 43
Massachussetts: Kerry 57, Bush 28
Michigan: Kerry 45, Bush 43, Nader 3 (4/30-5/2) Kerry 47, Bush 43
Minnesota: (3/23) Kerry 47, Bush 44 Kerry 50, Bush 38, Nader 2
Missouri: Kerry 49, Bush 46 Bush 49, Kerry 42
Nevada: Bush 49, Kerry 48 Bush 49, Kerry 38, Nader 4
New Hampshire: Bush 45, Kerry 39, Nader 8 (4/21) Kerry 47, Bush 45
New Jersey: (4/3-10) Bush 48, Kerry 44, Nader 5 (4/20) Kerry 51, Bush 39
New Mexico: (3/30-4/1) Bush 46, Kerry 45, Nader 3
New York: (4/5-12) Kerry 53, Bush 36
North Carolina: Bush 53, Kerry 42
Ohio: (3/10-22) Kerry 46, Bush 44, Nader 5 (3/23-31) Bush 45, Kerry 43, Nader 3
Oregon: (3/19-4/7) Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1 Kerry 46, Bush 45
Pennsylvania: (4/13-19) Bush 45, Kerry 39, Nader 8 (4/16-25) Bush 42, Kerry 42, Nader 5
Rhode Island: Kerry 53, Bush 31
South Dakota: Bush 50, Kerry 39
Tennessee: Bush 48, Kerry 44
Utah: Bush 64, Kerry 31
Washington: Kerry 55, Bush 43 (4/2-5) Kerry 46, Bush 41, Nader 2
Wisconsin (4/28): Kerry 46, Bush 40, Nader 8 Kerry 45, Bush 41, Nader 8
West Virginia (3/24) Kerry 46, Bush 46, Nader 2 (4/15) Bush 46, Kerry 41

(5/3) If we assume victory in any state with a 5 or more percentage point advantage for one candidate right now, the electoral vote looks like this (with 270 needed to become Pres.): Kerry - 176, Bush - 91 (PA and AZ have recently moved out of this strong lead category for Bush)

If we use common sense on the presumably lopsided states that I haven't seen polls for (Bush: Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Alaska; Kerry: Vermont, Delaware, DC, Hawaii), the total is: Kerry 189, Bush 171.

Despite only small leads in the most recent polls in these states, Bush is likely to claim Ark, TN, VA, AZ, OK and LA (though I'm tempted to move Arkansas into the toss-up category because they're tied there in the most recent poll), and Kerry is likely to claim Wisconsin (though polls have been all over the place). That makes it 227-199 for Bush.

That leaves Pennsylvania, Florida, Oregon, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, Ohio and Michigan uncounted. Under this scenario, Kerry must win Florida and 2 of the other big three, PA, MI, OH, and win a couple of the rest, OR Florida and 1 of the other big three and run the table on the rest--NH, NM, IA, OR, ME to become President. The polls in those last nine states are very close, 1 or 2 points. But if they fall the way they slightly lean now, Bush wins, 300-234 (with ME uncounted, no poll), because of his small lead in FL, OH, and having led before the present tie in PA. Turning 2 of those 3 gives Kerry the Presidency.