The hill gets steeper for Democrats in 2004
More math. Thanks for bringing this up, Doug. Comparing the electoral votes Gore won in 2000, with the electoral map distribution in 2004, after the 2000 census, shows that Gore states lost 7 electoral votes in the process (meaning that Bush-won states gained 7). Just adding New Hampshire or West Virginia won't do it anymore.

Change in Gore-won states from 2000 to 2004:
California +1
Connecticut -1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
New York -2
Pennsylvania -2
Wisconsin -1

Total change = -7

If you want to play with possible outcome models, here's a good electoral map game.