Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Not a Bad Trade
If it comes through. Palin may have won Ohio for McCain but lost Florida?
Former New York Mayor Ed Koch, who endorsed and worked for George W. Bush in 2004, is endorsing Obama today, NY1 first reported.

I asked Koch just now what prompted the move.

"The designation of Palin to be vice president," he said. "She's scary."
Maybe we'll find out just how valuable the Jewish vote is in Florida. If Obama wins only the Kerry states + Florida and Iowa (where he has a solid lead), he could afford to lose either Michigan or Wisconsin and still be President.

[UPDATE: While I'm thinking about it, and playing with an electoral map, could Obama win if he lost Florida *and* the rust belt states -Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania? Actually, yes. But he would have to sweep hoped-for states out west - Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana - and then take 2 out of three of Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, where polls have been close. (Could lose Montana if he wins VA and NC.) Problem is, I don't think NC or IN will come through, which means he probably really *must* win at least one of OH, MI, PA, FL]

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