Thursday, June 22, 2006

I'll Never Learn
Looking hopefully at the new Zogby poll numbers for Senate and Governor races. Of the 17 races they profile, 10 show Democrat leads. 5 Republicans. And 2, including TN's, are essentially tied. 2 states that aren't polled, Montana and Rhode Island, could be Dem. pickups, especially Montana. If all 10 of those leads hold up, plus MT and RI, that gives Democrats (plus Ind.) 48. Add the leaning Minnesota seat--49--and that still leaves Dems 2 shy of re-taking the Senate. The most likely chances for those extra 2? Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri (exactly...not so likely).

But the bigger question is--why am I looking at these stupid Zogby polls? Remember those battleground polls in 2004 that showed Kerry kicking butt? Showed him tied in Tennessee? Well ahead in Ohio? Winning Nevada? Arkansas?

There's no reason to pay any attention to these. Once, just once, though, I'd like for them to be wrong in the Democrats' favor...

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