Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Late-Night Thoughts
Given the incompetent governance of the last 7 years, Obama's answer in last night's debate about not being so much into the day-to-day management of the government was not the smartest, or the most confidence-building. Hillary's predictable attack today on the subject seems deserved.

Is Fred actually making a move? How high can he finish in South Carolina? I tend to think that Huck and Romney will split the crazy religious vote, Huck and Fred will split the crazy Southern vote, and Fred and Romney will split the crazy anti-immigrant vote, leaving McCain well positioned to win SC with the just-plain-crazy vote that's leftover. Still, I can't help but notice Fred's 3rd-place 14% in a new national poll, the highest I've seen for him in a while, and looks like he's sporting a new commercial set to show in SC. Maybe he can surprise? Even then is there a path to the nomination for him? Not without a floor fight.

Huckabee seems crazier and crazier the more the campaign goes on.

Edwards has to hate the way that - 2 states in - everyone's basically declaring it a 2-person race, with him out of it. He deserves better. But since he's not getting it, what's his plan? Is he serious about the convention-talk? Or will 3rd place in NV and SC spell the end? If not, what's he really up to? My prediction? As long as he gets delegates in both states he continues. If he gets shut out, he gets out. Otherwise, the first 5 questions he will get every day will be some version of "When are you dropping out?" and "Why have you not dropped out yet?" That's not the kind of coverage you want in a campaign.

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