Last Polls + A19 Prediction
ARG's Iowa poll today shows Clinton (34) - Obama (25) - Edwards (21).
Zogby's last 3-day tracking poll shows Obama (31) - Edwards (27) - Clinton (24)

Who knows. Over the last week, I've been prepared to predict each of them the winner. Hard not to see Hillary doing well, but tough to ignore the 2nd-choice status of Edwards, and Obama, especially with rumors of Biden and Richardson both making strategic decisions to push supporters in his direction. Still, here's the official Article 19 predictions, pulled out of my official Article 19 ass. It's based on signs of momentum and the thought that with all of those candidates spending all of that money to turn out caucus-goers, that turnout really should be higher than avg., which will help Obama. On the other hand, I could also see more people heading to the caucus in raw numbers to support Obama than the others, but his support being too concentrated and not broad enough across the state to win in the bizarre delegate system. Still, thinking that momentum + 2nd choice + turnout will have him at the top. Barely.

Obama -- 32.9%
Clinton -- 32.4%
Edwards -- 29.7%
Richardson -- 3%
Biden -- 2%

(Of course, you will remember that I once described Giuliani's chances in glowing terms, and called Huckabee's campaign over just prior to the straw poll that propelled him to a strong finish.) Let's hear your predictions in the comments.

I would not be surprised though by any order of finish among the three, and not really sure who I'm rooting for. Would like to see Obama and Edwards do well. The truth is that all 3 would make excellent candidates and great presidents. We just need to pick the one that can win in November.

Here's the fun part to watch for me. It looks like Fred wants out. He's all but announced he's quitting unless he gets a strong 3rd place in Iowa. But now it looks like he may in fact finish 3rd if he can squeak by McCain - they're practically tied in recent polls. If he beats him, it will do 2 interesting things: maybe make him stay in the race against his wishes, and slow down McCain, who seems to be on the move.