Wednesday, January 02, 2008

De-Coding the Iowa Polls
At pollster.com, Mark Blumenthal has a helpful roundup of what we know (not very much) and don't know (lots) heading into tomorrow's caucus. One thing we do know is something about how turnout will effect results on the Democratic side:
On the Democratic side, it has long been clear that John Edwards does better in polls that include bigger percentages of past caucus goers, and more recent surveys show Hillary Clinton and especially Barack Obama doing better as the samples include more first-time caucus goers.

...(D)ifferences in method produce huge variation in the kinds of voters selected as likely caucus goers. And what is truly surprising is that those differences appear to be growing in the final round of surveys.
On the GOP side, he also reminds that in 1988, despite being far behind in single digits in most polls (as high as 17% in just one poll), Pat Robertson finished second with 25% in 1988. Good news for Huckabee?

No comments: