Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Obama on the Move? Or, Crappy Poll?
ARG polls IA, NH and SC every month. The new numbers (with June's poll in parenthesis) are below:

New Hampshire
Clinton....31% (34%)
Obama......31% (25%)
Edwards....14% (11%)
Undecided..13% (11%)
Richardson..7% (6%)

South Carolina
Obama......33% (21%)
Clinton....29% (37%)
Edwards....18% (22%)
Undecided..12% (13%)

Clinton....30% (32%)
Edwards....21% (29%)
Obama......15% (13%)
Undecided..15% (13%)
Richardson.13% (5%)

That's a 20-point turnaround in South Carolina, from down 16 to up 4. I don't buy for a second that this means Obama has "won" the foreign policy tussle he and Clinton have been having, not on substance anyway. "I was going for Clinton, until I heard Obama wanted to talk to Hugo Chavez and that changed my mind"? Doesn't make any sense. But if the polls are legit, something must be up.

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