Path to a Kerry victory becoming clearer
There's a relatively new Zogby poll (7/6-10) of battleground states out, all taken after the Edwards announcement. Some people are critical of the methods, but even if you concede a 5-point swing in Bush's favor in each state from these results, Kerry still wins the election.  My favorite? In Tennessee: Bush 47.5%, Kerry 47.5%
 
If Kerry wins either Florida or Ohio, he's almost assured victory, the way things look now (wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania looking more likely all the time). But even if he doesn't win either, pulling out Missouri, where Zogby gives him the lead right now, plus either Iowa or New Mexico, would do.
 
I think Bush will have a hard time winning both Florida and Ohio. And even if he does, he could easily lose. The margin of error is shrinking on Bush's side.  But there's a long way to go.