Saturday, July 10, 2004

Choosing Edwards
Whether or not Edwards turns out to be a helpful choice remains to be seen. It depends on how they use him:

If this is a part of a Southern strategy, I hate to say but I think it is flawed. Kerry/Edwards could force Bush to campaign in Arkansas and, yes, Tennessee, and maybe even the Carolinas, but I doubt Rove will fall too hard for that. If the hope is that Kerry could now actually win one of those states, it's a big mistake. I don't see it happening. Only if something really turns and Kerry is winning all the states will that happen. Choosing Edwards will help in the South only insofar as it may help one issue in many states...that is:

Countering the elitism charge. Edwards' background and style of delivery will help him connect to the working poor, and those who care about the working poor and social justice, in a way that Kerry so far does not. These are people who share--or think they share--the "values" of the President, but could be persuaded, I think, to vote their pocketbooks with the right message. Do we have many in that position in the South? Yes, absolutely. But the South is a more conservative and more partisan place now than it was when Clinton/Gore won some states here in 1992. Edwards can make the difference in states that are close...Ohio, Missouri, West Virginia. If the campaign uses him heavily there, I'll be impressed. Sending him more often to Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia would be a mistake, even though I'd love for Tennessee to have a chance to be in play.

As for Edwards himself, I can't help but be impressed that the guy tapped to be the VP pick from the moment Kerry had sown up the nomination made it through the whole process and emerged as still the number one guy. That in itself says something good about him. Kerry could have gotten more buzz (arguably the only important thing a VP pick brings) with a surprise, maybe scored points for an independent spirit by picking outside the box, and risked dredging up all the negative things he said about Edwards' inexperience during the primary, and still he went with Edwards. Either the guy is very very impressive in person, or just polled the heck out of everyone else, or, I suspect, both.

Kerry-Edwards 2004!!

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