Wednesday, November 05, 2008

The Future: Still Hard to Predict
My brief post below hints at something I've wondered today: what will be the Republican route back to power if an emerging Democratic stronghold in the West and a consolidation of the Northeast including PA, leaves even OH and FL not enough for the GOP to win the White House? Where do they try to chip away?

At the same time... I guess you never know what's going to happen. Talk of long-lasting majorities is pretty silly. Stealing from Atrios' post, think back to where you were on election night, Nov. 2000, specifically the exact moment Florida was called for Gore, and all assumed he would become President (including me who took that news as the cue to head downtown to the Gore acceptance speech). Now imagine someone from the future came to visit you just then, and this is what they told you:

"Don't be so excited. Gore isn't going to win because really Florida is tied, and the Supreme Court is going to hand the White House to Bush. And he's going to screw things up so badly that Americans are willing to elect a black man to replace him. No, really. He's this 39 year old guy you've never heard of who just earlier tonight got his butt kicked in a Democratic congressional primary. Oh yeah, and his middle name is Hussein."

Chances are you would discount this prediction. Hard to figure what's going to happen in future presidential elections, I guess.

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