Tuesday, April 22, 2008

My baseless prediction is Clinton 53, Obama 47, slightly closer than most are predicting.

For a while there I really thought Obama would catch her and win even in this Hillary haven. A state couldn't be much more perfect for her. The worst part is that a modest victory - and far cry from the 20-point lead she had a few weeks ago - will do nothing to improve her chances of somehow rising from the ashes and grabbing the nomination. Her only longshot possibility is a catching him in popular vote, based on a hope that huge turnout and a massive win in Puerto Rico will garner hundreds of thousands of votes in June. Yep - that's the plan. Puerto Rico, to claim the popular vote lead. Even then, she has to convince superdelegates, and lots of them, that a popular vote lead is worth supporting her over.

The number I'm looking at is 200,000. If she can't gain that many votes on Barack in PA, catching him would seem just about impossible. He's ahead by about 700,000 now. If he holds her closer to 100,000, it's a huge victory and even her popular vote plan will be in shambles. If she gains closer to 300,000, it will still be possible to pull off.

Don't even think about pledged delegates. She is behind by at least 161. She will have to win 364 of the remaining 566 pledged delegates to be selected to catch him. That's more than 64%. There is no real chance of catching him in pledged delegates.

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