Appalachia
Was talking this over with Kenny B, and also Kenny T. An interesting DKos post looks into the problem of Appalachia for Obama, which would explain why he was never close in TN, lost OH, and will likely lose WV and KY and PA. I'm not sure I understand his struggles there especially, but it would seem to be true. Personally, I think Obama will make it pretty close in PA, if not win. But WV and KY will be tough. If he pulls off a PA stunner, we probably wouldn't even make it to those states anyway. Do I have any evidence, you ask, that PA is within reach? Yes I do. [UPDATE: and there's this.]