Sunday, September 30, 2007

Yes, a new Iowa poll shows Obama leading Clinton among "likely caucus-goers," and Clinton is still leading Obama in NH by quite a bit. This might be a good time to remind ourselves of the state of things at this point in 2003. Things are coming faster this time around, so let's compare to October 15, 2003, when Kos offered these numbers from a Granite State poll.
Dean 30 (16)
Undecided 20 (30)
Kerry 17 (18)
Clark 10 (3)
Lieberman 6 (11)
Edwards 5 (2)
Gephardt 5 (3)
Kucinich 3 (0)
Sharpton 1 (1)
Braun 1 (1)
And these from a poll in Iowa:
Dean 23
Undecided 22
Gephardt 20
Kerry 17
Clark 7
Notice that Edwards didn't even rate a mention in Iowa (he finished a close second, ultimately), and that not only had Kerry not yet made his IA comeback...he hadn't even really gotten to the meat of his freefall yet.

And who was leading the national polls at the time? Wesley Clark.

The first poll that means anything will come in mid-November.

[UPDATE: Via Kos, Rasmussen - right on cue - discusses the state of the Democratic race, comparisons to Dean's lead in 2003 and the ramifications of a Hillary loss in Iowa. The short version: Hillary's nomination is not inevitable, but comparisons to Dean are probably off the mark.]

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