Steve Clemons says he knows something, but not everything.
[S]ources close to Obama report to me that after the "surge of concern" on the net about Evan Bayh, he has not been selected as Obama's VP running mate.I would be very disappointed if Bayh was passed over because of "concern on the net". We've got to deal with the electoral map. If Obama wins Ohio, then he's going to win and all is well. But if he loses there (and now it's looking tied after months of leading), some things have to go right. If we win all the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico - as looks like a fair bet - that still leaves Obama 5 EVs behind. Colorado would do it. Nevada would do it. Montana PLUS Alaska would do it. Virginia would do it. And Indiana would do it. Bayh would bring Indiana. Who cares what his policy differences are!? Yeah liberals would get annoyed - and since when has *that* been a problem with the American electorate? And can we point to even *one* person who would have voted for Obama but won't if Evan Bayh is on the ticket?
I have been informed that the decision has been made, and I don't know who that person is.
I also have been told that Tom Daschle is not the running mate. I also happen to know that it is not Wesley Clark.
I just received word that it is not Senator Jack Reed either, though Obama thought very highly of him.
I know, I know, I haven't exactly been a champion of Bayh until recently, and I'm still not *in any substantive way*, but come on let's look at the map. If the pick doesn't wind up making strong electoral sense (and I can only see 2 - Kaine and Bayh - that do), I'm going to be very confused. And if he picks someone else and we go on to lose by those 5 EVs, going down in both IN and VA by slim margins, he's got lots of splainin' to do. Indiana's right there for the taking.
Worrying about the liberal vote...sheesh, pleeeze. Of all the moronic things to worry about, what liberals think about the VP has got to be the most pointless. Pick Evan Bayh, win his 11 electoral votes, go to Washington and put him in a box somewhere for the next 4 years and don't let him out.
I should say...Clemons also tries to tantalize us with one more hint he got.
One well placed political expert just told me on the phone that we may all be wrong and that Obama could come out with something completely unexpected -- a Hillary Clinton or even (and this shocked me) Al Gore or John Kerry.But note the differences. This is a political expert (not the source "close to Obama"), who says we "may all be wrong" (not that he has the slightest information that we are). This last bit is just idle speculation the same you or I could engage in. That said, I would have a positive response to either Gore or Hillary, even though the potential for electoral vote regret would be the same I mentioned above.