What I'm Watching For Tonight [UPDATED after Results]
Delegates--Any gain in pledged delegates by Obama is a good thing, but since NC is considered his likely win, and it's a bigger state, I am hoping for him to gain 50% more there than Hillary gains in IN. Still, any gain by Obama is a good thing and pushes her farther away from the nomination than she was yesterday. My poll-based projections below have Clinton gaining a delegate after winning 4 in IN and losing 3 in NC. But I'd say that's a pretty rosy estimate for her, and it still leaves her well behind in delegates. Even with that pace I projected, it leaves Obama to need only 100 superdelegates (out of about 278) after all the rest of the states (and Puerto Rico) have voted. [UPDATE: Obama netted 11 pledged delegates, +17 in NC, -6 in IN]

States--Obviously, they're expected to split the states. I assume they will. If he manages to win NC by more than he loses IN, he will have won the night clearly. But if the split holds up, things won't be much different tomorrow, as Hillary insists in going on and urging superdelegates to wait to declare their support. [UPDATE: They split but it was darned close in Indiana]

Popular Vote--The estimates I saw coming into today were for 1.5 million in NC and 900,000 in IN. If Obama wins NC and more than that come in, it will help him blunt her argument to the superdelegates that she can win the "popular vote". Similarly, if IN comes in higher than 900,000, it could help her case. If you follow the poll-based projections below, Hillary would gain 27,000 after combining tonight's 2 states, putting her on pace to still be about 30,000 votes short of Obama once future primaries are factored in, and that's only if you leave out caucuses that didn't report individual vote totals (estimates add about 100,000 for Obama in those few states). [UPDATE: The total was indeed much higher than estimates for Indiana, but it was so close that didn't help Hillary much in the popular vote count. Meanwhile, in NC, Obama won by more than 200,000. His net gain was around 200,000 for the night, pushing his popular vote lead back out to 700,000.]