VP Choices
Obama needs to win. He needs to pick a VP candidate that doesn't just make him feel good and compatible, but one who will help win electoral votes in a map that will probably still be pretty divided. So which ever one of the following can *most likely deliver* the state(s) in question should be the pick.

Hillary Clinton - uniting the party, overcoming Obama's lack of support among elderly and poor working-class voters to win FL (27) and/or OH (20)
Claire McCaskill - Missouri (11)
Jim Webb - Virginia (13)
Tim Kaine - Virginia (13)
Kathleen Sebelius - Kansas (11)
John Edwards - North Carolina (15)
Bill Richardson - New Mexico (5) plus, maybe Colorado (9)?
Ted Strickland - Ohio (20)
Phil Bredesen - Tennessee (11)
Sam Nunn - Georgia (15)
Ed Rendell - Pennsylvania (21)
Evan Bayh - Indiana (11)

So, which makes the most and least sense? And most likely to deliver? We all know the issues surrounding Hillary. I think she would make a smart and safe pick for one big reason: this primary has been unprecedented, and we just can't be sure that the Party will come together like everyone expects. To not pick her at this point will come across as a rejection of her, in the eyes of her supporters. The election will be close enough, can we afford to risk any slippage in the base? Sure, they will probably come around anyway, but if 20% of Hillary voters really support McCain, we have lost. But, I digress. How about the other possibilities?

The new fashionable pick after yesterday is to go back to Edwards. I do think he makes a better team with Obama than he did with Kerry, and would campaign better - as he did for President - than last time around. But can he really deliver NC? The Obama Map already hopes to put that state in play. If Edwards was good for a couple points it might work. Still, I'm not sure he can. Did he boost Kerry's play in the South at all?

Bredesen may deliver Tennessee, or come close, and Bayh might do the same in Indiana, as would Sebelius in Kansas, but at the expense of boring and/or turning off the rest of the country? Bayh would have the most national campaign skills out of those three and would add a Hillary supporter to the mix.

Richardson would sew up New Mexico, and help with Obama's problem among Hispanic voters across the country, but he can be a bit of an embarrassment on the campaign trail. NM only counts for 5 and is a state we should really be able to win anyway this time around. He's definitely auditioning for the part.

Rendell would lock up Pennsylvania as would, probably, Strickland in OH. Both Governors are relatively popular. We've got a better chance of winning PA in either case, so I'd elevate Strickland here.

Nunn is an intriguing case. He's got serious national security credentials, and having him on the ticket along with libertarian Bob Barr, also from Georgia, taking Republican votes away, just might give Obama Georgia and blow a hole in the Republican map. But he would be 70 years old and I haven't seen him lately. Is he still an effective, energetic figure?

Jim Webb can come off as a bit eccentric but to me he's an obvious choice. He puts VA in play (though Kaine would be a surer VA winner) but more important, he adds key military background and, as Reagan's former Navy Secretary, would provide an avenue of appeal to Reagan Democrats. He's a forceful advocate, a Vietnam Veteran, and I believe counters every bit of McCain's perceived strengths of experience.

McCaskill says she doesn't consider herself a smart choice, which is saying something. She could probably ensure Missouri I would think, and salve the wound of some Hillary supporters who want a woman on the ticket. But she does nothing for Obama's experience gap - no executive experience and a new Senator.

I have to rank them this way right now:
1. Hillary
2. Jim Webb
3. Ted Strickland
4. Tim Kaine
[UPDATE: 5. Joe Biden, who doesn't really play into the win-a-state theory, since Delaware will surely go for Obama no matter, but he would still be on my list.]

Yeah, to be sure, having Hillary on the ticket will be a pain in the ass at times. But the positives outweigh the negatives. Obama could quickly put to rest concerns that there is friction or a compatibility issue. But Webb would be fun to watch.