Super Tuesday Delegate Projection
Ok, it's Tuesday now, and here are my delegate projections. (I don't teach on Tuesdays, so I have some extra time on my hands tonight.) The newest polls suggest this: Hillary has stemmed the Obama rush in the last 24-48 hrs and turned things back her way. If you average the last 3 polls for each of tomorrow's states and assign those percentages to delegates - using the latest 3 national polls for states that don't have 3 recent polls - below is what you come up with. In parenthesis, I assigned the leftover/undecided vote proportionally based on the same percentages to arrive at a total.

Hillary wins 10 states. Obama wins 6. 3 are tied, another 3 essentially tied. I'm giving Obama a win in American Samoa for no reason other than the current natl poll avgs which give him a slight lead. Following this crazy formula, which is my official prediction, in terms of delegates, Clinton wins 768. Obama wins 704, with 211 undecided. If you split each state's undecided delegates proportionally, that's a total of 877-804, a gain of 73 delegates for Super Tuesday Hillary. Obama was leading 68-43 coming in. So, totals would be 945-872 Clinton, before the superdelegates. I think that would add up to a decent-to-good night for Obama, to be within 100 earned delegates when the night is done.

It's worth remembering that only the Nevada polls so far have been close to the outcome. Iowa and SC polls underestimated Obama by a sizable margin. NH polls underestimated Clinton. Still, here's what the polls basically predict about tomorrow, on average.

Alabama - Clinton 23, Obama 23, Undecided 6 (26-26)
Alaska - Clinton 6, Obama 6, Undecided 1 (6-7)
American Samoa - Clinton 1, Obama 1, Undecided 1 (1-2)
Arizona - Clinton - 24, Obama 21, Undecided 11 (30-26)
Arkansas - Clinton - 17, Obama 9, Undecided 9 (23-12)
California - Clinton - 178, Obama 154, Undecided 38 (199-171)
Colorado - Clinton - 22, Obama 23, Undecided 10 (27-28)
Connecticut - Clinton 22, Obama 21, Undecided 5 (25-23)
Delaware - Clinton 6, Obama 6, Undecided 3 (7-8)
Georgia - Clinton 29, Obama 43, Undecided 15 (35-52)
Idaho - Clinton 8, Obama 8, Undecided 2 (9-9)
Illinois - Clinton 48, Obama 88, Undecided 17 (54-99)
Kansas - Clinton 14, Obama 15, Undecided 3 (15-17)
Massachusetts - Clinton 49, Obama 37, Undecided 7 (53-40)
Minnesota - Clinton 30, Obama 30, Undecided 12 (36-36)
Missouri - Clinton 35, Obama 30, Undecided 7 (39-33)
New Jersey - Clinton 52, Obama 45, Undecided 10 (58-49)
New Mexico - Clinton 11, Obama 12, Undecided 3 (12-14)
New York - Clinton 124, Obama 84, Undecided 24 (138-94)
North Dakota - Clinton 6, Obama 6, Undecided 1 (6-7)
Oklahoma - Clinton 18, Obama 8, Undecided 12 (26-12)
Tennessee - Clinton 36, Obama 24, Undecided 8 (41-27)
Utah - Clinton 9, Obama 9, Undecided 5 (11-12)