Updated Polls
The poll post is updated to include some new national and state polls {UPDATE: As soon as I posted this, I saw new polls from FL and IA. So I edited this post to reflect.}

Given what happened last year, I'm not sure why I keep watching national polls, not because there's so much time left, but because they don't matter. Only the state results carry weight. If we assume victory in any state with a 5 or more percentage point advantage for one candidate right now, the electoral vote looks like this (with 270 needed to become Pres.): Kerry - 176, Bush - 126

If we use common sense on the presumably lopsided states that I haven't seen polls for (Bush: Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina, Alaska; Kerry: Vermont, Delaware, DC, Hawaii), the total is: Bush 206, Kerry 189.

Despite only small leads in the most recent polls in these states, Bush is likely to claim Ark, TN, VA, OK and LA, and Kerry is likely to claim Wisconsin. That makes it 252-199 for Bush.

That leaves Florida, Oregon, Iowa, New Mexico, Maine, Ohio and Michigan uncounted. Under this scenario, Kerry must win Ohio and Florida and Michigan, and either Iowa or Oregon to become President. To avoid this tough mandate to win Ohio, Kerry needs to fight back in PA, where he's getting his butt kicked and Nader's polling 8 percent.

The polls in those last seven states are very close, 1 or 2 points. But if they fall the way they slightly lean now, Bush wins, 291-243 (with ME uncounted, no poll). The national polls really don't tell the story, except to say that it's close.