The real "transference of support" question no one is asking yet...
Common question these days (laced with a ready tone of accusation): "Will Dean supporters stick with the Democrats and the nominee? Or will they bail and flock to Nader?" Instapundit believed he found evidence to support the latter assumption, and Billmon expressed the question in grander terms in a prediction he made in July, that is now coming back to him:

"I suspect that at some point – maybe in this election; maybe the next – a Democratic presidential candidate who is not Howard Dean is going to have to turn to Dean’s supporters and say, as Robert the Bruce says to Wallace’s supporters in the final scene of Braveheart: "You bled for him, now will you bleed for me?"

But the growing movement among Deaniacs, led by the Governor himself, to continue working toward electing Democrats, including the Presidential nominee, turns that question upside down, in a form that makes it much more powerful: Now that Howard Dean's candidacy/personality/electability is no longer at issue, will you non-Dean Democrats join with us in our efforts to elect progressive Democrats and uplift grassroots politics and funding methods? There's a Dean Meetup on March 3...and now it's got nothing to do with nominating Howard Dean for President... Come on in, the water's fine.